← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 60.7% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Chess | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |